Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
